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Cumulative Property Tax Increases

Toronto must get out of the financial hole we've dug ourselves into.

While there's a lot of attention on this year's proposed 10.5% property tax increase, it's possible this could have been mitigated with a modest increase to past years' property tax decisions. One big bite now versus several smaller bites in the past, if you will.

Some very rough analysis below to get a sense of some different paths since Toronto's amalgamation in 1998 that could have led to the same cumulative property tax increase as we are facing today:

Scenario 1 - What if Lastman had done 2% for the first 3 years instead of 0% (1998-2000)?

We may only need a 4.127% increase in 2024 to have the same cumulative property tax increase since amalgamation.

 

Scenario 2 - What if Tory had done 1% more every year in his first two terms (2015-2022)?

We may only need a 2.285% increase in 2024 to have the same cumulative property tax increase since amalgamation.

 

Scenario 3 - What if Tory had done 4% every year (2015-2023)?

We may only need a 5.725% increase in 2024 to have the same cumulative property tax increase since amalgamation (and note that 2023's historically high increase would be just 4%).

 

Scenario 4 - What if Ford had done 2.5% in his first year instead of 0% (2011)?

We may only need a 7.805% increase in 2024 to have the same cumulative property tax increase since amalgamation.

 

Scenario 5 - What if we had done 4 years of 1% instead of 0% (1998, 1999, 2000, 2011)?

We may only need a 6.188% increase in 2024 to have the same cumulative property tax increase since amalgamation.

 

Obviously, this is not a robust what-if analysis...

... but the exercise helped me visualize how small investments in our city can add up over time and how past decisions impact us to this day. Let me know your thoughts.

 

 

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